In his essay "On Liberty," John Stuart Mill explained the importance of listening to opposing views with an open mind. He emphasized how, despite our own deep convictions, we may be mistaken. More likely, we are partially correct and partially mistaken. Then, by making incremental adjustments we can advance toward a better understanding. Finally, Mill pointed out that even if we are completely correct, our opinions will deteriorate into stale dogma unless we are compelled to defend them.
So, we welcome comments from those who disagree with us about the situation in Ukraine. Our conclusions may be wrong or only partially correct, and even if fully correct we should be prepared to defend them. However, as former New York Democratic Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan noted, "You are entitled to your opinions. But you are not entitled to your own facts."
Here they are:
1. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
2. Ukraine is not a NATO member, and the United States has no legal obligation to defend it.
3. Ukraine's current borders were established in 1954, when the government in Moscow transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
4. The current Ukrainian government has passed laws restricting the use of the Russian language even in areas, such as Crimea, where most of the population are Russian speakers
5. Since 1999, NATO has added 15 new members, advanced 1,000 miles eastward and placed nuclear-capable missiles on the border of the Russian Federation.
6. Russia has a significantly larger population and a much larger economy than Ukraine.
7. Western sanctions have failed to cripple the Russian economy, but Ukraine has grown increasingly dependent on Western financial aid.
8. Russia has a large domestic defense industry, but Ukraine relies heavily on Western military equipment.
9. Although the United States has significant global security concerns, it has substantially drawn down its own reserves to supply Ukraine with arms and ammunition.
10. Although Russia will not surrender Crimea before suffering a decisive military defeat, the current Ukrainian offensive has made no noteworthy gains.
11. The Russian Federation possesses a stockpile of nuclear weapons at least as large as that of the United States and these weapons are far more powerful than those used in the Second World War.
12. Both President Biden and former President Donald Trump have cautioned that the war in Ukraine has already raised the risk of nuclear war.
Based on these observations, we have drawn the following conclusions.
1. Russia's invasion may well have been illegal, but it was not unprovoked.
2. Ukraine is not likely to retake Crimea without the active participation of NATO military forces.
3. Such intervention would further increase the risk of miscalculation and a catastrophic nuclear war.
4. In the absence of such direct NATO intervention, the most likely outcomes to this war are either Ukrainian defeat or a negotiated settlement that addresses Russian security concerns.
Like the war in Iraq, this is a war of choice for the United States. No one is attacking a NATO member. As we were once told that Saddam Hussein was busy building a nuclear bomb, we are now warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to invade Poland. Neither claim ever had any basis in reality. Like the war in Afghanistan, this is another "forever war" with taxpayers being asked to spend ever-growing sums for "as long as it takes."
Yet just how long that might be or what we are hoping to achieve is never clearly stated.
Instead, those endorsing this war seem to possess a geopolitical vision that is inconsistent with the facts and does not consider the high costs or grave risks the Western alliance is assuming in return for little or no gain. Moreover, they appear to accept the dubious proposition that American and Ukrainian interests are identical and that the United States should have no say in how a war it has enabled ends.
In a deeply divided nation, Newsweek remains one of the few publications that has not polarized its opinion page. Instead, it continues to promote a respectful, free exchange of differing views. We, too, welcome comments from those who do not share our conclusion on the war in Ukraine, so long as their analysis includes the 12 objective facts we have presented.
David H. Rundell is a former chief of mission at the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia and the author of Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads. Ambassador Michael Gfoeller is a former political advisor to the U.S. Central Command and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He served in diplomatic postings for 15 years in the Soviet Union, former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.
The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.